Iran Deal Inches Closer
After months of false starts, an agreement to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal appears closer than ever, as the United States and Iran appear to have resolved many of the sticking points that have delayed a final sign-off.
The latest positive signs come after the European Union drafted what it described as a “final” text that both Iran and the United States have had under consideration since the beginning of August.
On Aug. 15, Iran returned its comments on the proposal, which EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell described on Monday as “reasonable,” as he expressed hope that the negotiators could return to Vienna this week to move forward on negotiations.
The United States has yet to issue its public comment on the proposal, but U.S. officials have noted some positive developments, especially that Iran has dropped its demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. list of foreign terrorist organizations. National Security Council Spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said that any reports saying that Iran has received U.S. concessions in return are “categorically false.”
In his Monday comments, Borrell suggested that the ball was in the U.S. court. “I hope that this response allows us to end the negotiations,” Borrell said of the coming U.S. response. “That’s my hope, but I cannot assure you that this will happen.”
Before Washington shows its hand, the White House has been in close consultation with the other Western parties to the deal, the so-called E3 of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. On Sunday, a call between U.S. President Joe Biden and his fellow E3 leaders gave a hint of challenges to come by highlighting the “need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East region” according to a White House readout.
Assuaging Israel’s concerns is a priority for the administration, and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan holds talks with his Israeli counterpart Eyal Hulata this week. Others in the region seem less worried: the United Arab Emirates announced on Sunday that it was returning its ambassador to Tehran, marking a thaw following a six-year diplomatic freeze.
While the United States remains tight-lipped on the deal, oil prices have continued their downward trend over the prospects of new agreement, which would allow Iran to resume exports worldwide. It also wouldn’t come a moment too soon for consumers, with Iranian oil and gas able to fill a gap left by Russia’s forced exit.
Others remain skeptical, Eurasia Group’s Henry Rome, who has been tracking the deal since negotiations began 18 months ago gives the chances of a deal this year as between 35 and 45 percent. Analysts at Goldman Sachs are also wary of a deal coming soon.“Our view continues to be that a deal is still unlikely in the short term, with a stalemate mutually beneficial,” analysts from the bank wrote last week.